This study analyzes the impact of geopolitical risks on economic growth in Türkiye using quarterly data from 2010Q1-2025Q4 and the ARDL bounds test approach. The dependent variable is GDP, and the independent variables are Türkiye's geopolitical risk index (TGRI), the global geopolitical risk index (GGRI), foreign direct investment (FDI), and final consumption expenditure (CPI).

The ARDL bounds test results show a strong long-term cointegration relationship between the variables. Furthermore, empirical analysis results, based on long-term coefficient estimates, indicate that a one-unit increase in Türkiye's geopolitical risk index reduces GDP by approximately 8.49 units, while a one-unit increase in the global geopolitical risk index similarly causes a 0.04-unit decrease in GDP.

The findings also demonstrate that short-term shocks reach equilibrium quite rapidly in the long term. This situation means that the economic recovery process occurred at a high speed, and the economic recovery after the geopolitical shock was 104%. This shows that although the Turkish economy experienced sudden losses due to the shock effect of geopolitical risks, it showed a recovery trend of over 100% compared to the period when the risk started, once the geopolitical risk disappeared.