Predictions of Import and Export Values According to Transportation Types in the Logistics Sector with Trend Analysis Method
Chapter from the book: Arslan, İ. & Bozgeyik, Y. (eds.) 2024. Academic Research and Evaluations in The Field of Social Sciences.

Bilge Villi
Balıkesir University

Synopsis

As of 2023, when the top 10 countries in terms of economic size are examined, it is observed that these countries are the ones with the largest share in global trade. Turkey ranked 15th in terms of economic size in 2023, and it needs to get a larger share of world trade in order to achieve its goal of being among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of economic size. The importance of logistics activities is also significant in increasing this share. Transportation constitutes the largest expense item within logistics activities. In order for businesses to increase their profitability and gain a competitive advantage in the global market, they need to minimize transportation costs. Transportation constitutes the largest expense item among logistics activities. Businesses need to minimize transportation costs in order to increase their profitability and gain competitive advantage in the global market. Additionally, companies with advanced transportation systems can gain an advantageous position in this sector. In the logistics sector, making predictions of future expenses in terms of import and export in terms of transportation types is very important for businesses to determine their future activities. The aim of this study is to predict import and export values according to transportation types for future periods with the appropriate trend method. In this context, in this study, export and import values between 2013-2023 according to transportation types in Turkey's logistics sector were taken from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) website and forecast values for the next 4 months (December 2023, January-February-March 2024). While determining the most appropriate trend model for the compiled data set, the Quadratic model with the least error among the existing models (Linear, S-Curve, Quadratic, Exponential) was adopted, and the predictions obtained with the help of this model and the statistics of the model are given in the relevant tables and figures.

How to cite this book

Villi, B. (2024). Predictions of Import and Export Values According to Transportation Types in the Logistics Sector with Trend Analysis Method. In: Arslan, İ. & Bozgeyik, Y. (eds.), Academic Research and Evaluations in The Field of Social Sciences. Özgür Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub427.c1893

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Published

March 27, 2024

DOI