The Effects of Economic Policies on Consumer Confidence
The main purpose of this study is the short and long-term relationships between economic policies and consumer confidence research, using monthly data between 2008:01-2021:12 in Turkey. Data of the variables is obtained from the Turkish Institute of Statistics (TUIK) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) database. The Extended Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests used to examine the stationarity of the variables revealed that the relevant variables are generally first-degree static. For this reason, to investigate the long-term relationships between the variables, cointegration and Delay Distributed Autoregressive (ARDL) Model approach have been applied. As a result of the discoveries obtained from the analyzes made with the ARDL method, the long and short term relationship between economic policy variables and consumer confidence index in Turkey have been determined. While the positive effect on consumer confidence index has been seen by the indirect taxes ratio to total tax revenues and central government budget expenditures in the long term, the short term effect is negative . It has been observed that inflation and interest rates have a negative effect on the consumer confidence index in both the short and long terms.
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