In recent years, increasing geopolitical risks (GPR) on a global scale have negatively affected the functioning of financial markets and market actors. Wars, terrorist acts, political problems, and political tensions between countries in the geopolitical arena significantly influence investor behavior, negatively affecting the stability of financial markets. The insurance sector is one of the key players in financial markets and stands out as one of the sectors affected by these risks. Although the insurance sector plays a critical role in ensuring financial stability, it is inevitably affected by such risks.

This study investigates the impact of geopolitical risks on the insurance sector in Turkey, specifically using the BIST Insurance Index. Although there is extensive literature addressing the impact of geopolitical risks on financial markets, studies on the insurance index in Turkey are limited. In this context, the study aims to fill this gap in the literature.

In this study, monthly data from January 2008 to October 2025 were used to analyze the impact of geopolitical risks on the BIST insurance index using an extended VAR model based on the Toda–Yamamoto approach. The findings indicate that there is no significant causal relationship between geopolitical risks and the BIST Insurance Index for the period examined. These results suggest that the insurance sector may have a resilient structure against geopolitical risks and provide an empirical contribution to the literature on the Turkish insurance sector.