The Role of Incentive, Macroeconomic Indicators and Climate Policy Uncertainty in the Tourism Sector
Chapter from the book:
Buğan,
M.
F.
&
Çevik,
E.
(eds.)
2025.
Evolution of Financial Markets VII.
Synopsis
This study examines the impact of tourism incomes, tourism incentive, exchange rates, tax reductions, and climate policy uncertainty (CPU) indicators on the BIST Tourism Index (XTRZM) using monthly data for the period January 2019–July 2023 using the ARDL bounds test approach. The analysis results indicate a long-term cointegration relationship between the variables. According to the long-term coefficients, tourism incentive, exchange rates, tax reductions, and CPU have statistically significant and positive effects on the XTRZM. Error correction model (ECM) findings reveal that the CointEq(-1) coefficient is statistically significant and negative, and approximately 129% of short-term shocks are eliminated by overcorrection in one period, returning the model to its long-term equilibrium. After all, tourism incentive, exchange rates, tax practices, and CPU indicators are strategically important in the decision-making processes of XTRZM investors, tourism businesses, and policy makers.
