Trade Deficit Announcements and Asset Prices
Chapter from the book: Buğan, M. F. & Çevik, E. (eds.) 2025. Evolution of Financial Markets VI.

Rana Torun
Abdullah Gül University
Ahmet Yakup Erkılıç
Ministry of Culture and Tourism of the Republic of Türkiye

Synopsis

While prior research has extensively explored the influence of macroeconomic news on stock prices, the specific effect of trade deficit announcements has remained relatively underexamined, particularly across both developed and developing economies. This study seeks to evaluate and compare the semi-strong form efficiency of the energy sectors in France and Spain in response to trade deficit announcements between 2016 and 2024, within the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) framework. The analysis utilizes an event study methodology, focusing on monthly announced trade balance numbers, and applies the market model for forecasting purposes. The findings suggest that both countries' energy sectors reflect semi-strong form efficiency in reaction to monthly trade announcement releases, implying that investors cannot achieve abnormal returns based on this information. The presence of efficient markets in the energy sectors of France and Spain can enhance the confidence of both domestic and foreign investors in these countries' markets and energy sectors.

How to cite this book

Torun, R. & Erkılıç, A. Y. (2025). Trade Deficit Announcements and Asset Prices. In: Buğan, M. F. & Çevik, E. (eds.), Evolution of Financial Markets VI. Özgür Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub1111.c4735

License

Published

December 29, 2025

DOI