Food Production Index and Demographic Dynamics in G20 Countries: Panel Data Analysis and Psychosocial Implications
Chapter from the book:
Çemrek,
F.
(ed.)
2026.
Time Series Analysis: Current Methods and Applications I.
Synopsis
In this study, the demographic factors affecting the Food Production Index (FPI) in G20 countries are examined using panel regression analysis. The FPI is employed as the dependent variable, while the independent variables include the logarithmic population growth rate (lnPG) as a proxy for population growth, the adolescent fertility rate (AFR), and the total fertility rate (FR). The model is estimated within a fixed effects framework, and Driscoll–Kraay robust standard errors are applied to ensure robustness against heteroskedasticity, autocorrelation, and cross-sectional dependence. The overall significance of the model is tested using the F-statistic, and the results indicate that the model is statistically valid (F(8,5) = 6402.02; p = 0.000). In addition, approximately 40.55% of the within-unit variation is explained by the model. An examination of the coefficient estimates reveals that lnPG and AFR have positive and statistically significant effects on the FPI. Specifically, the coefficient of lnPG is estimated at 0.412 (p = 0.016), while the coefficient of AFR is 0.533 (p = 0.000), indicating that increases in population growth and adolescent fertility rates contribute positively to the food production index. In contrast, the effect of the total fertility rate (FR) on the FPI is negative and statistically significant (coefficient = −39.935; p = 0.000), suggesting that higher total fertility rates are associated with a decline in food production. With respect to time effects, significant decreases in the FPI are observed particularly in the years 2018 and 2020. Overall, the use of the Driscoll–Kraay estimator ensures that the findings are robust to potential statistical biases and provides reliable and consistent evidence on the demographic determinants of the food production index in G20 countries. These findings also suggest that shifts in food production—through their linkage to food security—may have downstream relevance for psychosocial well-being, supporting a more integrated policy framing.
