Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Youth NEET Rates in Balkan Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
Chapter from the book:
Ata,
A.
Y.
(ed.)
2026.
Current Issues in Macroeconomic Policies.
Synopsis
The aim of this study is to examine the macroeconomic factors affecting the rates of young people aged 15–24 who are “Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET)” in Balkan countries. The study employs a panel dataset covering the period 2007–2024 for Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, North Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Greece. The main variables investigated as determinants of NEET rates in the selected region are real GDP per capita, inflation rate, the share of wage and salaried workers in total employment, and the unemployment rate with advanced education. In the empirical analysis, heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and unit root tests were first conducted. Based on the findings obtained from these preliminary tests, coefficient estimates were derived using the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimator. The results indicate that, for the overall panel, real GDP per capita reduces NEET rates, whereas the unemployment rate with advanced education increases them. In contrast, the inflation rate and the share of wage and salaried workers in total employment were not found to be statistically significant at the panel level. Country-specific results reveal substantial differences in the effects of macroeconomic variables across countries. In particular, economic growth significantly reduces NEET rates in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, North Macedonia, and Serbia, while unemployment with advanced education increases the risk of disengagement from both education and the labour market among young people in Albania, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Bulgaria. While an increase in wage and salaried employment reduces NEET rates in Greece, it exerts an increasing effect on NEET rates in Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, and Slovenia. This findings suggest that wage and salaried employment does not necessarily facilitate young paople’s integration into the labour market in all countries. Overall, the findings suggest that the NEET phenomenon cannot be explained solely by economic growth. The labour market's capacity to absorb highly educated workers and the degree of alignment between the education system and labour market needs also play a crucial role. Accordingly, policies aimed at facilitating young people's transition into employment and improving the compatibility between education systems and labour market requirements may contribute to reducing NEET rates.
