Macroeconomic Dynamics of CDS Premiums in Türkiye: An ARDL Approach
Chapter from the book:
Özkul,
G.
(ed.)
2026.
Money, Banking, and Finance: Current Approaches in the Axis of Theory, Policy, and Practice.
Synopsis
This study examines the relationship between CDS spreads, which represent Türkiye's risk premium, and macroeconomic conditions and global financial uncertainty. The analysis considers CDS alongside inflation (ENF), interest rate (F), exchange rate (D), the export-import difference (DT) representing the external balance, and the VIX index measuring global risk appetite. The main objective of the study is to reveal how country risk is determined not only by local macro indicators but also by external factors that strengthen during periods of global risk aversion between 2008Q1 and 2025Q4. The ARDL modeling used allows for the evaluation of short-term fluctuations and long-term equilibrium relationships within the same framework. This allows for a discussion of the sensitivity of CDS premiums to both domestic factors and global volatility (VIX). The findings generally indicate that CDS premiums move in a long-term relationship with macro-financial variables and that increases in the exchange rate and VIX, in particular, can have upward effects on the country risk premium. Interest rates and external balance indicators can also be significant for CDS depending on the model. The effect of inflation can be overshadowed by other variables in some periods. The results emphasize the central role of global risk appetite and exchange rate dynamics in determining country risk in Türkiye. From a policy perspective, strategies aimed at reducing the risk premium should not only focus on domestic macroeconomic stability but also on global shocks.
