Analysis of Beef and Chicken Meat Demand in Türkiye Using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method
Chapter from the book: Önder, K. & Şahin, M. (eds.) 2026. Economic and Fiscal Perspectives on Sectoral Analysis.

Kübra Önder
Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy University

Synopsis

This study analyzes the dynamics of beef and chicken meat demand in Türkiye over the period 1994-2022 using annual data and the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) method. In the model examining the simultaneous structure of animal protein demand, per capita beef and chicken consumption are specified as dependent variables, while real per capita income, the relative price of beef to chicken, the relative price of mutton to chicken, and the urbanization rate are included as explanatory variables. After confirming that the variables are stationary at first differences (I(1)), long-run relationships are estimated using the SUR approach, and short-run dynamics are examined through an Error Correction Model (SUR-ECM).

The long-run results indicate that beef demand exhibits high sensitivity to its own relative price (-0,96) and maintains a strong substitution relationship with mutton prices (1,39). Income elasticity is positive and statistically significant for both products, with chicken demand (0,06) showing slightly higher responsiveness than beef demand (0,05). A noteworthy finding is that the urbanization rate has a negative long-run effect on beef demand (-0,20).

In the short-run analysis, the error correction term for beef demand is estimated at -0,05 and is statistically significant, confirming that short-term deviations converge toward the long-run equilibrium. While beef demand responds negatively to short-term income shocks, chicken demand maintains its positive adjustment pattern. Overall, the results demonstrate that meat demand in Türkiye is dynamically influenced not only by price and income variables but also by demographic transformation and cross-product substitution effects. These findings suggest that livestock policies should address beef and poultry markets as an integrated demand system rather than as isolated sectors.

How to cite this book

Önder, K. (2026). Analysis of Beef and Chicken Meat Demand in Türkiye Using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method. In: Önder, K. & Şahin, M. (eds.), Economic and Fiscal Perspectives on Sectoral Analysis. Özgür Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub1304.c5260

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Published

May 16, 2026

DOI