The Relationship Between Commodity Prices and Islamic Stock Markets: Evidence From the Wavelet-Quantile Approach
Chapter from the book:
Berberoğlu,
M.
&
Şimşek,
O.
(eds.)
2026.
Sustainable Finance, Risk, and Performance.
Synopsis
The main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between commodity prices and Islamic stock markets for Türkiye. In this context, the relationship between the MSCI Türkiye Islamic Stock Index (ISLAMIC) and the prices of gold (GOLD), silver (SILVER), and copper (COPPER) was analyzed using various methods based on monthly data covering the period from May 2002 to March 2026. First, the nonlinear structures of the variables were examined through the BDS test. Stationarity analyses were conducted using the Wavelet Quantile Augmented Dickey-Fuller (WQADF) and Wavelet Quantile Phillips-Perron (WQPP) tests. Subsequently, the relationships among the variables were investigated through the Wavelet Quantile Regression (WQR) and Wavelet Quantile Granger Causality (WQGC) methods. The findings reveal that the relationships between ISLAMIC and GOLD, SILVER, and COPPER differ across both frequency components and quantile levels. In particular, the effects of GOLD and SILVER on ISLAMIC become more pronounced in medium- and long-term frequency components, while they remain relatively weaker in short-term frequencies. In addition, COPPER is found to exhibit a stronger and more widespread relationship with ISLAMIC compared to the other variables. The WQGC results further indicate that the causality relationships among the variables vary depending on market conditions and investment horizons. Overall, the findings demonstrate that the relationship between commodity prices and Islamic stock markets possesses a nonlinear and frequency-dependent structure.
