The Relationship between Political Stability, Public Expenditures and Economic Growth: The Case of Emerging Market Economies
Chapter from the book: Alpağut, S. (ed.) 2025. Macroeconomic Research- 1.

Emre Şakar
Uşak University

Synopsis

Political stability and effective public expenditure management are widely acknowledged as key components of sustainable economic development, particularly in emerging market economies where institutional fragility and fiscal pressures are common. This study investigates the causal relationships between political stability, public expenditures, and economic growth using a panel of 30 selected emerging market economies over the period 2002–2023. Employing the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) panel Granger causality test, which accounts for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, the analysis provides nuanced insights into the interactions among governance and fiscal variables. The empirical findings reveal a unidirectional causality from economic growth to public expenditures, suggesting that fiscal decisions are significantly influenced by macroeconomic performance. Moreover, a bidirectional causal relationship is observed between political stability and public expenditures, indicating a dynamic interaction wherein governance conditions both shape and respond to fiscal outcomes. However, causal link is detected between political stability and economic growth across the full panel.These results underscore the critical role of political stability in shaping fiscal behavior, particularly in terms of public spending, and highlight the feedback mechanisms between governance and public resource allocation. The study contributes to the literature by offering empirical evidence specific to emerging markets and anticipates that enhancing institutional quality may foster more responsive and effective fiscal policies to support long-term economic growth.

How to cite this book

Şakar, E. (2025). The Relationship between Political Stability, Public Expenditures and Economic Growth: The Case of Emerging Market Economies. In: Alpağut, S. (ed.), Macroeconomic Research- 1. Özgür Publications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.58830/ozgur.pub774.c3212

License

Published

June 25, 2025

DOI