Examining the Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Food Inflation in Turkey Using the RALS Approach
Chapter from the book:
Konat,
G.
&
Koncak,
A.
(eds.)
2025.
Theoretical and Empirical Analyses With Traditional and Contemporary Econometric Approaches.
Synopsis
This study aims to examine the effects of macroeconomic factors on food inflation in Turkey for the period 2016:Q1-2025:Q3. The domestic producer price index for food and non-alcoholic beverages was used as the dependent variable, while the producer price index for agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, GDP, the CPI-based real effective exchange rate, and European Brent crude oil prices were included as independent variables. The stationarity of the series was tested using the RALS-ADF unit root test, and long-run relationships were analyzed with the RALS-ADL cointegration test. Long-run coefficients were estimated using FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators. The findings indicate that increases in agricultural producer prices and GDP raise food inflation, whereas an appreciation of the real effective exchange rate has a dampening effect. Increases in oil prices moderately contribute to higher food inflation. The results highlight the importance of strengthening agricultural production and closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations to ensure stability in food prices.
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
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Copyright (c) 2025 Gökhan Konat- Ahmet Koncak; Mehmet Aydın- Hüseyin Ünal- Muhammet Kutlu- Emre Ürkmez- Ahmet Demiralp- Tuğba Yılmaz- Şerife Akıncı Tok- Anıl Lögün- Ayşegül Han- Gökhan Konat- Ömer Faruk Bölükbaşı- Mert Şahin- Seda Başar Yılmaz- Engin Bekar- Çetin Görür