The Role of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Inflation Control: Evidence from Türkiye
Chapter from the book:
Gözen,
S.
&
Sağdıç,
E.
N.
(eds.)
2025.
Fiscal Developments in the Contemporary World: Theory and Practice.
Synopsis
This study empirically analyses the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies in combating inflation in the Turkish economy using data for the period 2006Q1–2025Q2. Inflation is considered the dependent variable in the model, while budget deficit, public debt, money supply (M2), real interest rate, and real effective exchange rate are employed as independent variables. The stationarity of the variables is tested using the ADF and Zivot–Andrews unit root tests with structural breaks. All series are found to be stationary at their first differences. Furthermore, the results of the Bai–Perron multiple structural break cointegration test reveal that significant structural shifts in Türkiye’s inflation dynamics occurred in 2016Q3 and 2021Q4. These breakpoints align with periods of heightened geopolitical risk and post-COVID-19 monetary policy regime changes. The findings indicate that both monetary and fiscal policies play a decisive role in influencing inflation; however, the magnitude and direction of their effects vary depending on prevailing macroeconomic conditions.
