This study examines the impact of traffic fines on road safety in Turkey using annual time-series data for the period 2006–2023. The primary objective is to empirically test whether increases in traffic fine revenues generate a meaningful and independent deterrent effect on the total number of accidents and the per-capita accident risk. Accordingly, the analysis evaluates the extent to which fine levels explain macro-level accident volume, population-adjusted risk indicators, and structural time trends, providing a multidimensional assessment of the effectiveness of Turkey’s traffic penalty policies. The empirical framework is based on four OLS models. The first model indicates that the positive association between fine revenues and total accidents is driven by a shared upward trend rather than deterrence. Model 2 uses population-normalized indicators, but per-capita fine levels do not significantly explain per-capita accident risk. The trend-controlled Model 3 shows that although the fine coefficient is significant, the insignificant time variable suggests that the relationship stems from structural co-trending. Model 4, using logarithmic ratios, confirms a non-causal co-movement between fines and population-adjusted accident rates. Overall, the findings reveal that monetary penalties alone do not constitute a strong deterrent mechanism for reducing traffic accidents. Improving road safety requires a multidimensional policy framework supported by effective enforcement, technological monitoring, infrastructure improvements, and behavioral interventions.